Trump’s trippy budget math

President Trump used to look at the economy and see “American carnage.” But a year into his presidency, the clouds have parted and the sun is shining.

Trump’s federal budget for 2019, released Feb. 12, foresees a far cheerier economic future than just about anybody else analyzing the economy. Trump expects real GDP growth to hit 3% this year, and stay near that level every year for at least a decade. Private economists think the economy will grow just 2.4% in 2018, and the Congressional Budget Office is gloomier still, seeing just 2.2% growth. Many economists, meanwhile, think a recession could hit around 2020, sending growth negative.

Trump’s outlook for jobs is unusually upbeat, as well. The Trump budget sees the unemployment rate dropping to 3.7% in 2019, and rising only slightly in ensuing years. Other economists think unemployment could drift as high as 4.9%, and that’s if there’s no recession.

Here’s a snapshot of how the Trump forecast differs from that of the CBO, a group of private economists known as the Blue Chip panel, and key members of the Federal Reserve:

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