Clinton Will Win, But Her Victory Will Be Short-Lived

With Congressional Republicans positioned to pester her from the start, Hillary’s triumph tomorrow could be her last

Hillary Rodham Clinton will become the first woman to win the presidency tomorrow, decisively defeating Donald Trump in no small part due to unprecedented Latino turnout.

The Party Crasher predicts Clinton will win the Electoral College vote 322-215, capturing virtually all of the swing states, as President Barack Obama did in his 2012 victory. Reports of Trump closing the gap at the end are reminiscent of past elections where the polling margins tightened in the closing days, only to widen back out at the end—including 2012, which was also what followers of the stock market would recognize as a “dead cat bounce.”

Early voting reports in Florida and Nevada indicate impressive Latino turnout thus far, and The Party Crasher, consequently, expects both states to tip into Clinton’s column, cutting off any path to victory for Trump. There is no realistic scenario by which Trump can lose Florida’s 29 electoral votes and compile the 270 electors necessary to win the election.

While the Real Clear Politics polling average in Florida shows Clinton ahead by only 1 percent as of Sunday—essentially a statistical tie—a Republican poll conducted by Remington Research was the only poll in the last five that showed Trump ahead, and the four-point margin in the Remington poll significantly skewed the average. (As a rule, The Party Crasher ignores any polling conducted by partisan pollsters, also scrupulously disregarding any polls that are conducted on behalf of Democrats.) All the remaining polls included in the RCP average since October 27 show Clinton with a slight but steady lead in the Sunshine State.

Additionally, estimates cited by The Washington Post on Nov. 5 indicate that the Latino vote in Florida may be up in excess of 150 percent over the same time period in 2012. At this point, based on the available information, this columnist feels exceedingly confident that Clinton will capture Florida.

In Nevada, the state’s leading political analyst, Jon Ralston, has been reporting for days a surge in Democratic early voting generally and Latino votes specifically. Numerous news reports back up Ralston’s reporting. While a recent CNN poll gave Trump a shocking six-point lead in Nevada (certainly an outlier as compared to other recent polling), The Party Crasher learned years ago not to bet against Ralston—nearly a lone voice in predicting Democratic Sen. Harry Reid’s 2010 reelection—in the Casino State.

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